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This hand is very cool because hugely important stuff happens on every street. The key to the hand is figuring out where we are on fifth. To do that, we'll have to start with third. D.O. is enormously unlikely to have queens in this spot, having just called on third with the whole world behind him and of course, given the dead queen. Possible starting hands for him include three flushes, a small pair in the hole and high cards. First--I'll throw it out there that if he's going to play a small wired pair, I believe he's more likely to raise with it. With a dead Q and dead J behind, he'll drive out other small pairs and straighty hands. Since we're early to act, he may opt to just dump the small wired pairs as well.
Now--let's look at the texture of high cards he'd play. David is a very strong, very observant player--NOT a guy we can expect to ignore board cards. I think he's rather unlikely to have a straighty hand like QT9, KQT, AQT etc, given the 2 and likely 3 dead jacks. I suspect that his range here consists largely of 3 flushes and almost precisely, the occasional AKQ (although I'd expect a reraise here frequently, as well).
Things start to crumble for me on 4th as DB catches a flushy card and bets, the chuft-monster catches a flushy and straighty card and calls, and I catch a slightly deadened 7 (marginally adding to the conviction that DB has a flush draw). But hey, I probably have the best hand now, and the 7 scares up my board slightly since if I started with a 3 to a straight, it improves me. I definitely don't want much action to go in on this street against 2 good looking drawing hands and 3 cards to come, so keeping the pot small and catching well on 5th is the plan.
Now we get to the crux of the hand. D.O. pairs his door and folds DB--this is good. Chufty calls, so he's either got a flush draw or a straight draw with a pair. On 5th, I make a very helpful 2 pair, since the 8 is straighty and continues to scare up my board. As Grapes posted in the comments of the previous post, I'd be much happier acting immediately after D.O. and trying to raise out Chufty. Oh well. From our 3rd street analysis, it seems that the only way D.O. should have 2 pair now is if he has precisely the 5h in the hole--which is pretty much my worst case scenario. I opt to raise for a few reasons: 1) If the hands are as I suspect, I have the best hand now and am a slight favorite over each of them. Chufty is clearly drawing and not there yet (for one, i think he'd raise. I also doubt he'd start with 653 or A35 unless he also had the Ad, in which case he'd probably put more action in multiway on 3rd anyway, so he most likely started with 543 and now has a pair and straight draw or a flush draw). My raise is for thin value and to put pressure on both of my opponents. D.O. almost certainly won't reraise even if he has 2 pair here, since I've raised his paired door and there is a guy who is clearly drawing to beat him with 2 to come--and chufty has to worry that his straight draw is no good even if he makes it. With D.O.'s paired board, I also now have position for the rest of the hand. If I elect to just call his fifth street bet, with two pair, he'll lead 6th and will likely lead the river. This way, he'll check to me on both streets and I can just take the river showdown, as well as squeeze a little more value out of chufty in the meantime. Not to mention that . . .
When I catch the 9 on 6th, my J-9-8-7 board is now very scary a chufty straight draw given my 5th street raise, less scary to D.O. and a chufty flush draw, despite my opponents each catching kill cards. The bet here is clear because now chufty might finally fold (yay! I guess we know what he had) and D.O. can't raise me. Additionally, given our 3rd street analysis and Chufty catching a T, the T is marginally less-likely to pair D.O.
Highlight below for results.
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hoss_TBF shows [Ks Jd Js 7h 8d 9s 8c] two pair, Jacks and Eights
David Oppenheim mucks
Hoss_TBF wins the pot ($25,197) with two pair, Jacks and Eights
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $25,200 | Rake $3
Seat 1: Hoss_TBF showed [Ks Jd Js 7h 8d 9s 8c] and won ($25,197) with two pair, Jacks and Eights
Seat 2: David Oppenheim mucked [Ah Kh Qh 5s Qc Tc 4d] - a pair of Queens
Now--let's look at the texture of high cards he'd play. David is a very strong, very observant player--NOT a guy we can expect to ignore board cards. I think he's rather unlikely to have a straighty hand like QT9, KQT, AQT etc, given the 2 and likely 3 dead jacks. I suspect that his range here consists largely of 3 flushes and almost precisely, the occasional AKQ (although I'd expect a reraise here frequently, as well).
Things start to crumble for me on 4th as DB catches a flushy card and bets, the chuft-monster catches a flushy and straighty card and calls, and I catch a slightly deadened 7 (marginally adding to the conviction that DB has a flush draw). But hey, I probably have the best hand now, and the 7 scares up my board slightly since if I started with a 3 to a straight, it improves me. I definitely don't want much action to go in on this street against 2 good looking drawing hands and 3 cards to come, so keeping the pot small and catching well on 5th is the plan.
Now we get to the crux of the hand. D.O. pairs his door and folds DB--this is good. Chufty calls, so he's either got a flush draw or a straight draw with a pair. On 5th, I make a very helpful 2 pair, since the 8 is straighty and continues to scare up my board. As Grapes posted in the comments of the previous post, I'd be much happier acting immediately after D.O. and trying to raise out Chufty. Oh well. From our 3rd street analysis, it seems that the only way D.O. should have 2 pair now is if he has precisely the 5h in the hole--which is pretty much my worst case scenario. I opt to raise for a few reasons: 1) If the hands are as I suspect, I have the best hand now and am a slight favorite over each of them. Chufty is clearly drawing and not there yet (for one, i think he'd raise. I also doubt he'd start with 653 or A35 unless he also had the Ad, in which case he'd probably put more action in multiway on 3rd anyway, so he most likely started with 543 and now has a pair and straight draw or a flush draw). My raise is for thin value and to put pressure on both of my opponents. D.O. almost certainly won't reraise even if he has 2 pair here, since I've raised his paired door and there is a guy who is clearly drawing to beat him with 2 to come--and chufty has to worry that his straight draw is no good even if he makes it. With D.O.'s paired board, I also now have position for the rest of the hand. If I elect to just call his fifth street bet, with two pair, he'll lead 6th and will likely lead the river. This way, he'll check to me on both streets and I can just take the river showdown, as well as squeeze a little more value out of chufty in the meantime. Not to mention that . . .
When I catch the 9 on 6th, my J-9-8-7 board is now very scary a chufty straight draw given my 5th street raise, less scary to D.O. and a chufty flush draw, despite my opponents each catching kill cards. The bet here is clear because now chufty might finally fold (yay! I guess we know what he had) and D.O. can't raise me. Additionally, given our 3rd street analysis and Chufty catching a T, the T is marginally less-likely to pair D.O.
Highlight below for results.
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hoss_TBF shows [Ks Jd Js 7h 8d 9s 8c] two pair, Jacks and Eights
David Oppenheim mucks
Hoss_TBF wins the pot ($25,197) with two pair, Jacks and Eights
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $25,200 | Rake $3
Seat 1: Hoss_TBF showed [Ks Jd Js 7h 8d 9s 8c] and won ($25,197) with two pair, Jacks and Eights
Seat 2: David Oppenheim mucked [Ah Kh Qh 5s Qc Tc 4d] - a pair of Queens
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