Home
 
 
02 April 2009 @ 12:56 am
Italy!  
As a few of you guys know, Em and I just took our first sans-computer vacation in a long time.  Over her spring break, we spent four days in Rome and four in Florence.  Hopefully unrelated to our electronic deprivation, I had an awful time sleeping and couldn't sleep more than 4-5 hours a night.  The second morning in Rome I woke up around 4:30, read Angels and Demons for a while (it seemed setting-appropriate) and in a shocking turn of events, I snuck out of the room to go for a run while Emily was still asleep.  Though fairly short, it was an awesome run.  The sun was rising and streets only starting to bustle.  I looped from our hotel to the ruins of ancient Rome, around the Forum and then around the Coliseum before returning.  Connecting with that sort of history--the Coliseum especially--while huffing and puffing at first light with nobody else in sight is a pretty *wow* experience, one of those moments that helps you view your own place and time in a slightly less self-centric context.

But no matter . . .  When I returned to the room, Em was still asleep.  The room was pitch black and I didn't want to wake her by turning on the light but since i was pretty thirsty, I figured I'd grab a water from our backpack and bring it into the bathroom.  The propblem, however, was that in the backpack there were 5 sparkling waters, belonging to Em and 2 still waters, which were mine.  As a math-based player, I was already working on the solution.  I thought back to an eerily similar interview question involving black and white socks in a dark bedroom that I had with Susquehanna five years earlier and I tried to determine how many bottles I'd have to grab to have an acceptably low risk of ending up with all sparkling water.  At this point, I deduced the best way to proceed was:  

P (at least 1 still water) = 1 - P (all sparkling)

As I pulled the waters one-by-one, I was tempted to stop at 3, which would have yielded ~30% chance of all sparkling, but decided to be extra sure and go for 4, which yielded <15% chance of all sparkling (yes, I really sat sweating, in the dark, on the floor next to the backpack, thirstily doing this math in my head).

I took the chosen bottles to the walk-in closet where I'd been reading, closed the doors and turned on the light.  For added suspense, like a stud player squeezing out a river card, I slow-revealed the waters to myself . . . .  All . . . f&%*ing . . . sparkling.  I muttered to myself, "Ack!  Bad beat!"  As I tiptoed to into the bedroom to grab two more waters, I grimaced as I realized that a read-based player would have just brought the whole backpack with him in the first place.  Score one for the bad guys.

 
 
( 15 comments — Post a new comment )
Sabyl[info]sabyl on April 2nd, 2009 07:33 am (UTC)
LOL. Guess I am a read-based player. I was like "Why don't you just take the whole backpack with you?"

My other thought was to wonder if there was some difference to the feel of the bottle/packaging to help you tell the waters apart in the dark.

[info]tiltcity on April 2nd, 2009 12:14 pm (UTC)
I would have taken one bottle out of the backpack and taken the rest. That way you save having to carry an extra bottle that doesn't improve your chances of getting a bottle of Still (already 100%, with at most five of the six bottles being sparkling water.)

Billy Joel wrote a song about a bottle of red, bottle of white. But you running fans (short for fanatic) write Livejournal posts about a bottle of still, bottle of sparkling, all with funny probability notation.
(Anonymous) on April 2nd, 2009 01:56 pm (UTC)
My luck
With my luck, Em would have drank all the still waters before I returned from my run...sounds like a fun vacation. Nice choice on the book. Though I haven't read it (and probably won't, more into biography's), the setting would have been epic.
[info]betapro on April 2nd, 2009 03:08 pm (UTC)
Hi, I think that your calculation is wrong: P(all sparkling) is a binomial distribution, so for 3 bottles it should be Bi(3, 5/7)=(3choose3)*(5/7)^3*(2/7)^0=(5/7)^3=0.36 and for 4 bottles it is (5/7)^4 = 0.26. So your chance of ending up with all sparkling bottles is pretty high.
Correct me if I'm wrong
Hoss_TBF[info]hoss_tbf on April 2nd, 2009 03:15 pm (UTC)
You're wrong. There is no replacement so once one bottle is pulled, the odds change. Odds of pulling the first sparkler is 5/7, then given that 1 sparkler is pulled, the odds of pulling the next are 4/6, etc . . . so for 4 bottles, it's (5*4*3*2)/(7*6*5*4)
[info]betapro on April 2nd, 2009 03:24 pm (UTC)
Oh ,shiet, how bad am I in math.
[info]betapro on April 2nd, 2009 03:32 pm (UTC)
I got pwned by HOSS.
Adam Bachrach[info]allknight on April 2nd, 2009 07:19 pm (UTC)
Sounds like a fun trip so far, heck you even got to squeeze in a math problem right? I got to admit though I was most jealous of your run, now that really sounded amazing...
[info]natarem on April 3rd, 2009 04:35 am (UTC)
okay, not exactly the same, but...
This is exactly what I was talking about in a post I made last night (http://www.natarem.com/2009/04/01/whats-your-poker-potential/). In the third bullet point I talked about how people with analytical minds tend to do better in poker. Of course, your example is more of a strict and solvable math problem than what I was talking about with grey-area math/guessing, but the whole mindset of optimization is exactly what I was trying to get across.

Sounds like a fun trip.
(Anonymous) on April 3rd, 2009 10:43 am (UTC)
ROLF. Hoss, you've got the best poker player blog out there! :)

- vanoff
(Anonymous) on April 3rd, 2009 05:32 pm (UTC)
lol
funny read,

also its good to see you playing 8 game on stars, enough of lol min bet
(Anonymous) on April 3rd, 2009 11:13 pm (UTC)
Kirk would have reprogrammed the scenario and sipped clean still water from a Kobayashi mug (while verbalizing his exploits). Be less Spock, more Kirk.
(Anonymous) on April 8th, 2009 11:17 am (UTC)
hi matt as a chemistry/physics based player, i would have taken each bottle out squeezed it, shaken it, then resqueezed. any increase in the bottle's resistance to your squeezing would indicate carbonation.
-jack
(Anonymous) on April 13th, 2009 11:19 am (UTC)
I would only chose one, I mean who wants to carry 4 bottles if they don't have to, sounds like a pain to me. However, I also wouldn't want to be faced with the tough decision if I get to the closet with the wrong bottle of either going back to try again or just drinking my non preferred drink. So id just shove right there and open the bottle in the dark and put the decision on fate. Let fate make the tough decision so you don't have to that's what I say.
(Anonymous) on April 13th, 2009 11:31 am (UTC)
Well as an OCD based player, first I would obsess for about 20 minutes about not getting the right drink. Then I would decide that choosing the wrong bottle was too great a risk and that I must turn on the light, which I would proceed to turn on then turn off then turn on then turn off. I'd do this about 50 times at which point I would collapse on the floor crying as the newly woken Em came over to console me at the same time as wondering why she ever married me in the first place. But hey, play it your way if you like.